Recorded Future's Insikt Group assesses that the US faces a heightened physical threat environment from homegrown and domestic violent extremists over the next 12 months, exacerbated by second-order sociopolitical effects of the Iran War and the 2026 midterm election cycle. Islamic State supporters pose the most significant mass-casualty attack risk among HVEs with 12 arrests in the past year, while AGAAVEs motivated by partisan animus constitute the primary targeted attack threat to high-profile officials. Iran-nexus plots remain aspirational and reliant on financially motivated actors, indicating capability gaps despite clear intent. AVEs are escalating from sabotage to IEDs and destructive devices, particularly targeting immigration enforcement facilities and associated private-sector entities.
Iran War
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Iran War’s Secondary Effects Shape 2026 US Violent Extremism