Understanding and Anticipating Venezuelan Government Actions
This report provides geopolitical intelligence on the political landscape of Venezuela following a January 2026 US military operation that removed Nicolás Maduro. It analyzes Acting President Delcy Rodríguez's strategies for consolidating power, managing internal regime rivals, and navigating US diplomatic pressure and OFAC sanctions relief.
Authors: Recorded Future, Insikt Group
Key Takeaways
- A January 2026 US operation removed Nicolás Maduro, leading to Delcy Rodríguez assuming presidential duties.
- Rodríguez faces significant internal opposition from PSUV hardliners, including Diosdado Cabello and Vladimir Padrino López.
- The US has issued multiple OFAC General Licenses (46A, 47, 48, 49, 50) to facilitate energy cooperation and sanctions relief.
- Rodríguez is expected to prioritize economic stabilization and coalition management over ideological purity.
Affected Systems
- N/A - Geopolitical Intelligence
Attack Chain
This report details geopolitical events rather than a cyber attack chain. On January 3, 2026, a US military operation extracted former President Nicolás Maduro. Subsequently, Delcy Rodríguez assumed power, navigating internal political factions, managing relations with the US for sanctions relief, and handling opposition demands for competitive elections.
Detection Availability
- YARA Rules: No
- Sigma Rules: No
- Snort/Suricata Rules: No
- KQL Queries: No
- Splunk SPL Queries: No
- EQL Queries: No
- Other Detection Logic: No
No cyber detection rules are provided as this is a geopolitical intelligence report.
Detection Engineering Assessment
EDR Visibility: None — Not applicable to geopolitical events. Network Visibility: None — Not applicable to geopolitical events. Detection Difficulty: N/A — This is a geopolitical analysis, not a cyber threat.
Hunting Hypotheses
| Hypothesis | Telemetry | ATT&CK Stage | FP Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monitor geopolitical threat intelligence feeds for updates on Venezuelan political stability and OFAC license changes to assess risks to regional business operations. | Threat Intelligence Feeds | N/A | Low |
Recommendations
Immediate Mitigation
- Review organizational exposure to Venezuelan markets and ensure compliance with newly issued OFAC General Licenses (46A, 47, 48, 49, 50).
Infrastructure Hardening
- N/A
User Protection
- N/A
Security Awareness
- Incorporate geopolitical risk assessments into enterprise risk management strategies.
- Monitor the rhetoric and actions of key Venezuelan officials (Delcy Rodríguez, Diosdado Cabello) for indicators of political instability.
